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The Fediobserver has daily and monthly stats for active users. I assume daily indeed follow daily variations. You also saw those huge bumps when LW updated and started counting votes as activity
I think the observer shows daily and monthly stats for the active users per month and active users per half year so the active users per month wouldn't change as fast I think.
Also about it being a botfarm I do think that is a possibility. Actually there is more evidence for it when you see extend the graph to 120 days and see a huge uptick in users and servers at the same time. Edit: 2024-7-29
Edit: wording
~Anti~ ~Commercial-AI~ ~license~ ~(CC~ ~BY-NC-SA~ ~4.0)~
Indeed, I was remembering it wrong, you might be right!
Definitely